The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeated over and over that the monetary policy Board is of the opinion that the conditions for a rate hike are unlikely to be met until 2024.

  • That is, employment and inflation targets are unlikely to met until then.

From a BNZ note, analysts at the bank say that RBA view "is looking more obsolete by the day". BNZ citing the most recent jobs figures (published yesterday)

  • Employment growth surprised to the upside for the umpteenth time, dragging down the unemployment rate to 5.1%, back to preCOVID19 levels.

ANZ make a similar point:

  • The labour market is tightening faster than we expected, potentially pressuring our call for a rate hike in H2 2023.
  • The RBA will be cautious but its forward guidance already seems to be shifting.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeated over and over that the monetary policy Board is of the opinion that the conditions for a rate hike are unlikely to be met until 2024.