Just a heads up for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due at 2100GMT

A rate cut is widely expected

25bp is the most likely

But it may be 50bp

Previews:

  • RBNZ expectations are either 'very dovish' or 'ultra-dovish' but it's hard to fight this trend
  • Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD falls before RBNZ decision later
  • RBNZ shadow board warns against cutting rates too hard
  • ANZ: RBNZ will cut tomorrow, may remove "unjustified", "unsustainable" comments on NZD
  • Preview of the RBNZ monetary policy decision due 9am NZ time, 5pm ET
  • Barclays says RBNZ to cut in July, September and again in December
  • RBNZ preview: Decision is whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points

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  • A fall in the NZD on a 25bp cut is likely to see buyers come in quickly, this is a widely expected and positioned for cut.
  • A cut of 50 bp would be the surprise and should see a bigger fall, watch 0.6500 as a key level, its held there and ahead of there over the past week or so.
  • A 'no cut' would catch the market very much by surprise and would see a big gain for the NZD