Decision due at the top of the hour
- 18 economists surveyed
- 15 expect a cut to 2.50%
- 3 expect no change at 2.75%
Normally I would I think the trade would be on the long side. It's a but of a longshot but a high-reward trade, especially after the blockbuster manufacturing report earlier this week.
However, there are larger undercurrents kicking in at the moment and carry trades are getting punished so even if there is a squeeze on a 'no change' decision, it won't be as large as you would normally expect.
NZD is trading at 0.6646, flat on the day.
The most-recent statement ended with:
"To ensure that future average CPI inflation settles near the middle of the target range, some further reduction in the OCR seems likely. This will continue to depend on the emerging flow of economic data. It is appropriate at present to watch and wait."
