Yesterday I posted a preview of the July RBA meeting, its here: UBS note on what to expect from RBA

While the summary is of a UBS client note there is also a snippet from DB in it.

This now, via HSBC, and in (very) brief:

  • improvement in the local labour market and business conditions
  • improving global economic conditions
  • a recent shift in rhetoric at other central banks will all act to re-affirm the RBA's view that it will not need to cut the cash rate further

RBA's commentary has suggested that the leverage-fuelled housing market boom had been the key reason that it is not considering further cuts

  • improvements in the local and global macro-economy over recent months would further bolster the central bank's resolve

The RBA will also be keenly aware that central banks have gradually been turning more hawkish in recent weeks.

  • Federal Reserve has clearly suggested that it will begin to reduce its balance sheet soon and that it intends to continue to lift its policy rate
  • The ECB has given stronger hints that it may reduce its quantitative easing program soon
  • There is debate at the Bank of England, amongst the MPC members, about the possibility of a rate hike
  • Officials from the Bank of Canada and Norges Bank have turned more hawkish in recent weeks.

We do not expect the RBA to introduce any explicit forward-guidance in its policy statement, although the tone of the commentary may very well be a little more upbeat than previously, particularly on the local labour market.

  • We expect the RBA to point to forthcoming CPI numbers (2Q CPI is due to be published on 26 July) as the next key release to watch.
  • In our view, once the RBA has clear signs that wages growth is past its trough it will not be long before it will seek to move towards a more normal cash rate setting.

Our central case is for a hike in 1Q18 (not quite yet, but sooner than the market is currently pricing)

(Bolding is mine)

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe.

The RBA announcement is due at 0430GMT on July 4; as always it'll be accompanied by a statement from the Governor of the Bank.