Survey of economists - most likely see 2 Fed rate hikes in 2019

The latest Reuters poll of >100 economists conducted January 16 to 23

Some highlights:

• probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months held steady from last month at 20 percent, (median forecast)
• chance of a recession in the next two years also steady at a median 40 percent

• survey still predicted two rate hikes in 2019, in line with the December poll and the Fed's own dot-plots. However, economists now expect the Fed to take rates higher in the second quarter instead of the first quarter, as predicted in the previous poll. But nearly one-third of 105 economists predicted the U.S. central bank would either hike rates only once or keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent in 2019.