Draghi's replacement could be named as soon as next month
Benoit Coeure
Mario Draghi was dealt a tough job as ECB leader but was able to shore up support for the euro and push though pro-growth policies despite opposition.
It will be tough to fill his shoes but the final leg of the race starts after the EU elections. Top European leaders will meet Tuesday to talk about political appointments.
There hasn't been a German ECB leader since the early days of the euro and Germany's Jens Weidmann is a leading candidate. He has tried to reposition himself as a centrist in the past few years but the Bundesbank's decades-long hawkish reputation dogs him. German appointees have a reputation for doing what's best for Germany at the expense of the broader eurozone and it may not be the best time for Weidmann.
Instead, the more-likely candidates are France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Benoit Coeure along with Finland's Olli Rehn and Erkki Liikanen. However there are a half-dozen other names that are also in the field.
Rumours have persisted for months that Merkel would rather have the head of the European Commission as a German anyway. She may try to trade the ECB in order for Manfred Weber to lead the EU.
In terms of trading, the market will respond negatively to Weidmann. Normally a currency cheers a hawk but growth is the more important metric for the euro at the moment and Weidmann would be viewed as dangerously hawkish. The Finns also tilt that way to a lesser extent while the French candidates would be the closest to a continuation of Draghi (Coeure in particular).
