I have been rather scornful of the Reserve Bank of Australia saying it will not hike the cash rate until 2024.
RBA forecasts have been poor and taking a three-year view like this smacks of arrogance. Markets are pricing in about a one-in-three probability of a cash rate hike by the middle of 2022.
Says TD Securities:
- "It's entirely reasonable for markets to start pricing in some risk of the RBA hiking rates
- Markets are going to price in increasingly higher odds of the RBA having to pull the trigger before their three years are up."
Positives include:
- more stimulus from the new US Biden administration
- vaccine rollouts
- commodity price gains
