The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy announcement and statement is due Tuesday 4 September at 0430GMT
There is zero chance of any change in the cash rate (OK, its never really zero, but its close enough). Its the accompanying statement that could be a source of change.
I have posted previews earlier:
- Preview of the RBA September monetary policy announcement and statement
- Where to for the AUD today - trading the RBA
- RBA meet Tuesday - preview for what is an assured result
- AUD traders - RBA September meeting is Tuesday - preview
I have bolded one of them, the TD preview, as they have nominated a numerical risk of a more dovish RBA, at 5% (they have 'neutral' at 95%).
The risk for the AUD is if the RBA do adopt a more dovish outlook. Its not a negligible risk given the move from the RBNZ at their most recent meeting, but neither is it a big risk. The Australian economy does not appear to be in such a funk as the NZ economy (being traced back to plunging business confidence), which should temper any dovishness from the Bank today.
I reckon TD is about right on a 5% risk of a more dovish statement today.