Adam’s got a comprehensive BOC preview, here: Preview: Bank of Canada could be Canadian dollar tipping point
Here are are some thoughts from RBC from a client note on the upcoming BoC statement and MPR:
- “They will take into account the marked decline in oil since the Oct MPR
- The 2015 growth estimate will likely be revised lower (prev 2.4%), particularly on softer business investment
- The headline inflation profile will also need to be taken lower, likely troughing below 1.0% in 2015 before recovering
- Deputy Governor Lane has indicated that the Bank will look through near-term energy-induced softness in headline CPI, however, there could be some spill overs that nudge core inflation estimates lower
- Overall, the statement and MPR will likely exhibit a dovish tone, and a greater focus on the downside risks to the outlook (though no change to rates)”