A preview of the Bank of Japan two-day policy monetary policy meeting that concludes today. There is no scheduled time for the finish, and the announcement.

If you ask me (OK, I know, you didn't), not having a scheduled finish time makes sense. It finishes when they're finished!

Anyway ... they normally make whatever announcement they have in the 0230-0330GMT time window. Expect it then .... but no guarantee, of course. The more there is to discuss and debate, the longer it will go and the later the announcement will come.

What to expect today?

  • Well, the short version is .... no change to policy is expected.
  • The latest survey of economists I have seen has 33 of 35 expecting no change. 2 of the 35 expect a little further easing.

OK ... now for the longer version ... but I'll keep it as brief as possible.

The median forecast for economic growth this fiscal year is expected to be revised lower slightly.

  • Some on the board believe global growth has slowed, evidenced by sluggish Japanese exports & factory output
  • Exports rose 2.4% y/y in May, below expectations & slowing from the 8.0% rise in April (but seasonally adjusted, exports fell 2.7% m/m in May & fell 1.9% in April)

  • Industrial production showed a weaker than expected 2.2% fall in May m/m. The first drop in 2 months

  • But ... core private-sector machinery orders rose to a seven-year high May, the 3rd consecutive rise

  • IMF projects global growth slowing from 3.5% (their April forecast) to 3.3%

On the CPI:

  • Majority of the board is likely to repeat the official outlook that the 2% price target will be achieved around the first half of fiscal year 2016
  • Core CPI +0.1% on year in May, from +0.3% in April

Dissent:

  • Takahide Kiuchi is expected to again propose a smaller annual monetary expansion of Y45 trillion
  • He is likely to be voted down, 8 to 1

More:

  • BOJ's Tankan diffusion index for sentiment among major manufacturers stood at +15 in June, improving from +12 in March, and is projected to rise further to +16 in September
  • There is likely to be mention of external factor volatility, China and Greece
  • Note - there is a new BOJ board member (Yukitoshi Funo) at this meeting. He is perceived as more dovish than the member he replaced.

AND ... later ....

BOJ Governor Kuroda will hold his usual press conference at 0630GMT:

  • He is likely to repeat that the BOJ won't hesitate to ease policy further if data suggest growth and inflation are not meeting BOJ expectations