Two meetings coming up on Wednesday
![Powell and Poloz pic](http://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20191028/powell-poloz-2.png)
The Bank of Canada decision is Wednesday morning and the Federal Reserve is due that afternoon.
For the Bank of Canada, no change in the 1.75% overnight rate is virtually guaranteed with the market pricing a 98.9% chance of no move. Given market pricing, it might be an extended period on the sidelines for Poloz, with only a 27.5% chance of a cut priced in until October 2020.
The likelihood of a Fed cut means US rates will fall below the BOC. The market sees a 92% chance the FOMC lowers rates to 1.50-1.75% Wednesday. More important for the market will be signals about the December 11 meeting. The odds of another cut then have been falling and are now down to 22%; but that rises to 42% for the Jan 29 meeting.
If rate hikes are slowly priced out, it will put steady upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar -- especially against the yen.