BOJ decision is due around 0300 GMT
The Bank of Japan meets today and only 2 of 35 economists polled by Bloomberg expect no change in rates. Reuters today cited sources saying no move is coming today and hints that officials are worried about liquidity evaporating from the Japanese bond market.
Other analysts are focused on the potential for easing later in the year. The problem for the BOJ is that their forecasts have been overly-optimistic from the start and there is no credible path to 2% inflation.
Economists at UBS say the BOJ will stay sidelined baring a round of risk aversion and yen strength.
"We think the BoJ plans to take no action if no risk-off market develop and USD/JPY stays around the current ¥120/$ range, and if there are signs of recovery in Q3 GDP," they write.
If Q3 GDP is close to flat, they write, and the Fed doesn't deliver US dollar strength, then more moves are likely.
"We believe further easing is likely in the event of weak Q3 GDP and forex at ¥117-120/$. If the yen weakens to around ¥125/$, we think the adverse impact on consumption could be mitigated by packaging action with a supplementary budget to support household finances."
Citi is also out with a report saying BOJ easing is more likely if USD/JPY falls to 115.00. All and all, the best support in the pair isn't technical but the Bank of Japan.
