Via a note from Macquarie on Monday, views on what it'll take to bring a rate from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) back to the table, and more.
Analysts at the bank argue that given there have been three consecutive consumer-price index reports showing upside, it'll take a good-sized miss on the data this week from the US to turn around the more hawkish sentiment from the Fed and put a December rate cut back in play:
- Thursday's US GDP data
- Friday's US PCE inflation index
Either or both need to miss:
- "The hurdle for the Fed to reverse its tone and sound dovish again is a high hurdle, for now"
On stocks, Macquarie point to "two dynamics at work behind the better tone in global stock markets"
- decline in gold and oil prices
- steadiness of the USD rather than a continued rise
“For one, concern over a spreading regional war in the Middle East has faded. The movement away from a wider conflagration, and back to a shadow war is probably why US bond yields are higher today.”
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Not much of a respite from USD strength, but its what we have:
