Tomorrow marks a year since a hawkish pivot from St Louis Fed President James Bullard. At the time, the market ignored him because he says a lot of things and can be a lone wolf but he proved to be correct.
At the time, he called for a faster taper to give a chance for the Fed to hike early in 2022. His comments are worth a read because they illustrate how quickly markets can change. A year ago, most expected the Fed to just be thinking about liftoff right now and instead we're at 2.25%.
I wanted to highlight this today because we're coming out of the FOMC blackout and will start to get Fed comments today. That could include a pushback on markets paring down the odds of rate hikes this year.
The current Fed funds curve is at 70% for 50 bps in Sept and 30% for 75 bps. The top is seen at 3.30% in Dec/Feb then falling to 2.72% by next December.
