Yesterday's data:
Early responses:
- Australian inflation 20 year high - analysts piling in on a rate hike forecast on May 3
- ANZ is now calling for the RBA to hike rates by 15 bps to 0.25% next week.
- RBA rate move for next week is all but priced in now
As of this morning, the list of analsyts looking for a rate hike next week (the RBA meeting is May 3) has grown:
- AMP, UBS, JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, NAB, ANZ
(there may be more)
Those not tipping May, but a June hike instead (the meeting is June 7), cite RBA comments only this month (earlier in April) when Bank officials said they'd want to see not only Q1 inflation data, but also wages data, due on May 18, and average earnings due on June 1. Along these lines, one of the better takes I had seen in the wake of the CPI data arguing for a June hike was that waiting a month (i.e. hike in June, not May) is not a long delay in macroeconomics terms.
Lift off ... May or June?
