ANZ forecast a 50bp interest cut from the RBNZ next week

ANZ preview the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on November 27. In brief:

• We expect a 50bp cut to 4.25% next week. That would be consistent with RBNZ October messaging, economists’ forecasts, and market pricing. Data since the October Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, but no data looks likely to upset the apple cart.
• Beyond this meeting, the data will decide, but with the OCR much closer to neutral, our baseline expectation is that the RBNZ will reduce the pace of easing to standard 25bp cuts, to reach a trough of 3.5% in May.

Hard to argue with ANZ, I think 50bp is baked in. Then the RBNZ has nearly 3 months until their next decision is due.

Posted yesterday:

• Goldman Sachs expects a 50bp Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut this month