Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 3Q growth rises to 2.6% from 1.6% on August 26

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 3Q growth rose to 2.6% from 1.6% on August 26. Construction spending and the Manufacturing ISM report contribute to the gains. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.6 percent on September 1, up from 1.6 percent on August 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.0 percent and -5.4 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent and -3.5 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

High-growth is consistent with a tighter Fed policy. The expectations for a 75 basis point hike in September has increased toward 80%. However, the Fed members have consistently said that they are data dependent with employment and inflation the key economic releases. Tomorrow the BLS will release the latest employment statistics with expectations for nonfarm payroll to increase by 295,000 vs. 528,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%. The average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.4% vs. 0.5% last month.

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