Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q4 growth rose to 1.3% from 1.2% last. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.3 percent on December 6, up from 1.2 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.8 percent and -3.2 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -2.9 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.01 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
The move lower of late has taken the modeled GDP estimate closer to the blue-chip consensus estimate (see chart above).
