The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q model estimates 3Q growth at 5.4%. That is unchanged from the previous estimate.The estimate is the final one ahead of the actual release scheduled tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see growth lower at 4.5%.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 25, unchanged from October 18 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.1 percent to 3.0 percent after rounding.
The Atlanta Fed has been accurate in modeling GDP growth over the last two quarters.
- For Q2 the final estimate was at 2.4%. The actual Advanced GDP came in at precisely at 2.4% (and above economists' estimate of 1.8%).
- For the 1Q, the final estimate for growth was at 1.1%. The actual Advanced GDP came in at 1.1% (and below economists estimates of 2.0%).
Will they make it 3 for 3 in 2023?
We will see at 8:30 AM tomorrow.
