This piece is from analyst Michael Pascoe here is Australia, arguing that a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is likely on the horizon despite all the tough tough from Governor Bullock last week.
Check it out here:
The key points:
- RBA typically downplays rate cuts until the last minute
- Inflation hawks looking backward, doves looking forward
- Wage growth not driving key inflation areas
- RBA admits uncertainty in forecasting and labor market dynamics
- Latest wage price index shows annualized 3.4% growth in H1 2024, below CPI
- RBA focused on anchoring inflation expectations around 2.5% target
Pascoe suggests that an interest rate cut could be "live" by November meeting. I agree.
This screenshot is from the front page of the Bank's website.
The next lot of inflation data reports are due on:
August 28
- Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator for July
September 25
- Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator for August
October 30
- September Quarter 2024 - this is the biggie!
- Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator for September
The next RBA meeting following the quarterly CPI due on October 30 is on 4 and 5 November.
