The Australian dollar had dribbled a little lower heading into the CPI data and it dipped a little more in response to the lower than was expected headline:
- Australian monthly CPI for October 2023 4.9% y/y (vs. expected 5.2%)
- Headline lower than expected
- The core measure, underlying inflation, 'trimmed mean' was still 5.2%, down from 5.3% in September
- October data had a large 'goods' representation compared with services so it may be lower than it otherwise would have been
But enough of the caveats, a December (meeting on the 5th) rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia now looks very unlikely indeed.
As I noted earlier the monthly data is incomplete, we'll have to wait for the quarterly for a better read. that's not until January 31 2024 for the Q4 CPI q/q. The RBA then meet on February 5 and 6.
