Yesterday I posted a preview of this and why its important for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week:
Comments on what to expect via:
NAB:
- We expect the Monthly CPI Indicator to fall to 7.2% from 7.4% y/y , in line with consensus, but what the services subcomponents say about inflation trends will be as important as the headline given the limitations of the monthly indicator.
- The monthly CPI indicator comes with the usual caveat that it does not reflect the full basket of consumer goods in each month and has only a short back history.
- That said, with the RBA keen on as timely a read on inflation developments as possible, it will be closely watched, with what the services subcomponents say in focus.
CBA:
- We forecast a 0.4%/mth lift in consumer prices occurred in February after the price declines recorded in January. However, the annual rate will likely continue to fall.
- After peaking at 8.4% in December last year, we expect the annual rate to have moderated to 6.9% in February 2023.
- The key drivers for the monthly increase are the annual increase in education prices, a lift in fuel prices, and ongoing strong rental inflation. Partly offsetting should be a large drag from a fall in travel prices, as they continue to unwind the massive +27%/mth increase in December last year.
