Australian official inflation data is due mid-week - preview.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will be publishing CPI data for the October - December quarter on Wednesday, 25 January 2023 at 11.30 am local time in Sydney:

• 0030 GMT on Wednesday, 25 January 2023
• 1930 US ET

I posted this yesterday:

• Australian inflation data this week - the RBA will be eyeing it for the February 7 meeting

Priors and expected:

Headline

• expected 1.6% q/q, prior 1.8%

For the y/y,

• expected 7.5%, prior 7.3%

Core inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term: Trimmed mean

• expected 1.5% q/q, prior 1.8%

• expected 6.5% y/y, prior 6.1%

Core inflation: Weighted median

• expected 1.4% q/q, prior 1.4%

• expected 5.5% y/y, prior was 5.0%

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Preview comments in brief from Westpac:

The Trimmed Mean is forecast to lift 1.6% in December, a moderation from the 1.8% gain in September which we are forecasting to be the largest quarterly rise this cycle.

The annual pace for the Trimmed Mean is set to lift to 6.6%yr, from 6.1%yr in September, which again is our forecast peak in core inflation. We are forecasting core inflation to moderate to 3.4%yr by end 2023.

The key factors in our forecasts are:

• ongoing robust gains in food prices,
• rising fuel prices due to the increase in fuel excise,
• and a bounce back in holiday travel prices

As for the RBA, Westpac are forecasting a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting, February 7. And tipping further hikes ahead until a p[eak in May.

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Preview comments via Scotia:

• The addition of monthly CPI inflation readings since October has sharply improved the freshness of readings that were previously largely reliant upon lagging quarterly estimates.
• Australia updates both for Q4 and December on Tuesday evening (eastern time as always).
• Markets trimmed RBA bets a bit after a small part-time driven drop in employment during December and may be more vulnerable to upside surprise to inflation relative to what is priced.
• Headline CPI Headline CPI The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. Headline CPI is a term that traders use to avoid confusion with core CPI, which strips out the volatile prices changes of food and energy. It is a widely used measure of inflation, and is calculated and published by statistical agencies, such as Statistics Canada and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the United States.The basket of goods The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. Headline CPI is a term that traders use to avoid confusion with core CPI, which strips out the volatile prices changes of food and energy. It is a widely used measure of inflation, and is calculated and published by statistical agencies, such as Statistics Canada and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the United States.The basket of goods Read this Term is expected to accelerate toward 7 ½% y/y in Q4 and 7.7% y/y in December with trimmed mean CPI expected to approach almost 6% y/y. Quarter-over-quarter momentum will be key given the pattern to date (chart 14)

Graph via Scotia's preview: