Greg had the US growth data for Q2 here:
2.8% vs. 2% expected is a huge beat.
Bank of America says the economy "remains on robust footing". Got that right.
In brief from their note:
- 2Q US GDP growth ... even stronger than our above-consensus forecast of 2.3%, and our final tracking estimate of 2.4%
- upside surprise on growth was supported by strong consumption growth of 2.3%
- Overall, the economy continues to disprove skeptics. Growth has certainly cooled relative to last year, but it has done so at a gradual pace. The risk of a sharp slowdown is low, in our view.
- the headline print is a clean signal of where underlying momentum is in the economy. Again, we are cooling but gradually.
- The Fed can afford to wait
- We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting in December
- September has moved closer to the baseline given recent incoming data that point to cooling in labor markets and a return to disinflation
