Bank of Canada business outlook survey highligths that most businesses see a recession

Highlights from the Bank of Canada's key Business Outlook Survey for Q3:

• Business confidence has softened
• Most businesses think a recession in Canada is likely within 12 months
• Many firms expect slower sales growth
• Pressures on production capacity are still high, though labor and supply chain bottlenecks have eased
• Pressures on prices and wages have started to ease but firms' inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term expectations remain high
• Businesses with sales linked to housing activity and household consumption expect weaker sales growth due to rising interest rates
• For the first time in the past five quarters, businesses reported that their supply chains had improved compared with three months ago
• Futures sales -18 vs -26 prior

This survey should go a long way towards a Bank of Canada pivot near year-end, possibly with a signal on Oct 26. At that meeting, the BOC is 70% priced for 50 bps with the remainder at 75 bps.