CIBC expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold at the policy meeting today:
1400 GMT is 10am US Eastern time.
Via CIBC, tipping no change at the meeting todat:
- US and Canadian labour markets have continued to drive above their non-inflationary speed limits. So central banks have to decide whether to pull them over and issue a ticket, by hiking rates again this month, or be a kinder cop and only issue a friendly warning this time, saving the rate decision for July.
- We lean towards the latter, particularly for Canada.
- The Bank of Canada is in the uncomfortable position of having to make a rate announcement ... Wednesday, and then see the May jobs data on Friday. By using the June announcement to issue a stern warning that a rate hike could well be in the cards for July, they can keep bond yields and mortgage rates elevated, while putting off the decision until they have that data.
