Bank of England preview - on hold in May with expectations firming for a June rate cut

The Bank of England may 2024 decision is due on Thursday at 0700 US Eastern time.

On hold expected.

Earlier:

• expect a change in the messaging in favour of rate cuts

More specifically:

• Deutsche Bank is expecting the Monetary Policy Committee to “set the stage for a June rate cut”
• HSBC are also expecting the first rate cut to come in June

Oxford Economics:

• The data published in mid-April for services inflation and private sector regular pay growth has likely extinguished any remaining hopes of a move in May.
• Though both measures have continued to fall, progress has been slightly slower than the MPC anticipated, and they are currently running marginally higher than the forecasts published in February’s Monetary Policy Report.”
• a “close call” on whether the MPC decides to cut rates in June or August