A brief summary of a long piece from Reuters on what to expect from the BoJ this week.
- BOJ meeting concludes Thursday; rates expected to stay unchanged at 0.25%
- Weekend election loss complicates BOJ's normalization path
- USD/JPY hit 3-month highs near 153.50 as markets bet on delayed hikes
More:
- BOJ's in no rush with inflation stable around 2%
- Quarterly outlook report unlikely to show major forecast changes
- Political uncertainty after ruling coalition's defeat adds new wrinkle
- Most economists now see no hike until 2025 Q1
The wild card? Ueda's tone at the press conference (3:30pm Tokyo/0630 GMT Thursday). Watch for:
- Any shift from September's dovish "we can afford to wait" stance
- Fresh warnings about yen weakness (dollar/yen's been on a tear)
- Hints about wage growth expectations for 2025
Bottom line:
- The path to BOJ's "neutral" 1% rate target looks bumpier after the election. Ishiba's weakened position means he'll need support from parties favoring ultra-loose policy. That's not great news for yen bulls.
Next BOJ meetings:
- Dec 18-19 and Jan 23-24, but March 2025 looking more likely for the next move.
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USD/JPY update:
