The European Central Bank policy meeting is today

  • statement due at 1315 GMT, 9.15am US Eastern time
  • Lagarde's news conference follows a half hour later

Analysts tossed up three scenarios:

  • pause, at 20% probaility
  • +50bp, also at 20% probability
  • +25bp, a 60% probaility

Given financial market stability concerns but also the ECB's continued effort to subdue inflation analysts have settled on a +25bp rate hike.

ecb lagarde

European Central Bank President Lagarde