Rick Rieder is global fixed income CIO & PM at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager,. BlackRock has circa US$10 tn in assets under management.
In summary,m and while conceding there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for inflation:
- we think both Core CPI and PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022.
- That’s at least partly because supply chains will take time to improve, and we may well be past peak globalization, as measured by trade’s share of global GDP.
Reider notes the risks to this view:
- the right-tail risks of persistent #inflation are greater than the potential for sub-2% inflation anytime in the near future, as the war in Ukraine and deglobalization potential present dramatically changed prospects for prices in the years ahead
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This sort of analysis would seem to nail shut the coffin lid on Fed 75bp rate hikes ahead.
