- There's a risk inflation will get stuck materially above 2%
- Expect inflation to decline to about 3% this summer
- We are encouraged by progress so far but getting inflation back down to 2% is going to be more difficult
- For inflation to 2%, labor market needs to rebalance and corporate pricing behaviour needs to normalize
- persistent wage growth in 4-5% range will make it hard to reach 2% target
- Reemergence of pervasive global financial stress could have major spillover results for Canada
What counts as 'materially'? That's left deliberately vague. The market sees the BOC at the end of the cycle and nothing in tomorrow's Canadian jobs report would change that.