- We continue to think we don't need a large rise in the jobless rate to get inflation to target
- There is room to grow and add jobs even as inflation moves closer to 2%
- Signs of financial stress are particularly evident among renters
- We can't rule out bumps but increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting the inflation target
- Path to a soft landing has always been narrow and we have yet to fully stick the landing
- We are starting to see evidence that wage growth is moderating
- Looking forward we will look for wage growth to moderate further
- Gov't has some room to slow non-permanent residents without tightening labor market too much
The market was pricing a 70% chance of a July rate cut before these comments and he's certainly not pushing back on that. I'd bump those odds even higher now.
