BOE Pill: Further rate action likely to be required to ensure inflation will return to 2%

BOEs Pill speaking and says:

• further action is likely to be required to ensure inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term will return sustainably to 2% target
• does not anticipate raising bank rate to levels price by markets ahead of November monetary policy report.

The market had the implied bank rate peaking at around 5.25% in the second half of next year prior to the November 3 rate hike of 75 basis points (expectations are lower now). The Bank of England raised rates to 3.0% on November 3. A Reuters poll released earlier today pegged expectations for the December meeting at a 50 basis point hike to 3.5% (see report here)

The GBPUSD GBP/USD The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a Read this Term has reached the midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 1.20499. The high price extended to 1.20798. The current price is back testing the 50% midpoint as I type.

In the UK debt market, the 10 year note yield moved to 3% today and below the 100 day MA at 3.016%.. The high yield reached 4.632% back on October 12 (see chart below)

The UK two year yield is at 3.105%. It is approaching its 100 day moving average at 2.934%. At 100 hour moving average has been a good support level going back in time.