- All 71 economists poll expect BOE to keep bank rate unchanged at 4.75% next week
- BOE expected to cut bank rate by 100 bps in 2025, likely by 25 bps each quarter
- 19 of 23 economists expect US to put less than 10% tariffs on UK imports
- 20 of 25 economists note that tariffs will have an insignificant impact on the UK economy
- 4 of 25 economists said that the impact will be significant, the other one said there will be no impact
As things stand, the OIS market is seeing ~89% odds of the BOE keeping the bank rate unchanged on 19 December next week. So, the poll results fit with that. As for tariffs, it is a fair take as China and Europe are the ire of Trump at the moment.
