- If we see evidence of inflation persistence, we will act forcefully
- Inflation should come down rapidly next year
- Pick-up in pay is still largely being driven by one-off bonuses rather than higher base rate
If the forecast is for inflation falling rapidly next year then the case for aggressive hikes starts to get flimsy. The BOE is currently at 1.25% with the August meeting at 60% for a 50 bps move.
