Bailey
  • We think inflation will continue to fall this year, and more rapidly in 2H 2023
  • Inflation may not fall as per forecast though
  • We are in unchartered territory with inflation above 10%
  • Inflation risks are skewed to the upside
  • We have done a lot on rates already and full effect is yet to come through

Another point in the dovish corner is when Bailey pointed to uncertainties regarding the inflation outlook and "that is why we have increased the bank rate today" before following that up with "and that is why we will continue to monitor the data very carefully". That's not a strong follow through and points to a less aggressive rate hike path, if anything else.