- We saw quite a serious crystallisation of risk; that remains a live issue
- Very important to make clear gilt purchases are a financial stability intervention
- Pensions funds have the resources they need, bringing them over is the challenge
- LDI has increased its leverage
- We have unprecedented volatility in the long end of the gilt market
- The BoE "will be out [of the market] by the end of the week"
This is a clear sign that the Bank of England is done with its emergency package. UK 30s are almost back to 5%.
An estimate this week indicated that pensions will need to sell £100-150 billion in assets to shore up liability driven investment (LDI) capital.
- UK and US have very tight labor markets
- Rise in long-term sickness is concerning for UK
Cable has stumbled back lower to 1.1074 in a quick move as Bailey dashed hopes for an extension.
A broad USD bid has also come on the comments.
Markets don't like central bank ultimatums.