BOJ is likely to consider raising their consumer inflation projection to around 2.5%

In summary:

• Bank of Japan officials meeting this week will probably consider a sharp increase to their inflation forecast for this fiscal year, while also discussing concerns about whether the upward trajectory is sustainable
• BOJ policy board is likely to mull raising the consumer inflation projection to around 2.5% for the year ending in March, up from 1.8% in the April estimate
• expect projections for the following fiscal years to be largely unchanged to reflect a lack of confidence the bank can achieve its 2% inflation goal in a stable manner

That info comes via Bloomberg, citing "according to people familiar with the matter".

Updating the CPI forecast is one thing, but its pretty much offset by the addition that the Bank will likely not think such a high rate (by Japanese standards) is sustainable. The first point argues for an increased likely hood of some sort of YCC tweak, the second, fo course, does not.

The consensus is for unchanged policy, but its not unanimous:

Goldman Sachs expect a tweak:

• Goldman Sachs are still expecting thee Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week

As do MUFG:

• MUFG are expecting a Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control tweak at this week's policy meeting

But ...

• BOJ meet this week. MUFG still expect YCC tweak but their confidence ebbing. Yen scenario.

Others:

• Bank of Japan meet this week, July 27-28 - no change seen to yield curve control (YCC)

• October is now the month most cited as the likely timing for a BOJ policy change

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda comments this week have watered down YCC tweak expectations
• Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 July)
• Week ahead highlights include: FOMC, US GDP, PCE; ECB, BoJ; flash PMIs

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The Bank of Japan policy meeting this week, July 27 and 28, will also include the publication of the Bank's latest quarterly Outlook Report, which will have updated forecasts, such as for CPI.