BOJ meet this week. MUFG still expect YCC tweak but their confidence ebbing. Yen scenario.

The Bank of Japan meet on the 27th and 28th.

Goldman Sachs expect a tweak:

• Goldman Sachs are still expecting thee Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week

As do MUFG:

• MUFG are expecting a Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control tweak at this week's policy meeting

However, MUFG do say now that their conviction on this is diminishing:

Key Points

1. YCC Change Conviction: MUFG has reduced certainty about an alteration in YCC settings in the imminent announcement, but the element of surprise inherent to YCC adjustments means a change remains possible.

2. End-Q3 Forecast: Their end-Q3 forecast of 136.00 is based on the prediction of a YCC change. This implies a considerable drop if an unexpected YCC change occurs.

3. JPY Risk Direction: Given the potential outcomes, the JPY risk is now more inclined towards a larger gain if YCC remains unchanged, as opposed to a loss.

MUFG summary comes via eFX.;

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