BOJ policy meeting today - a change can't be ruled out given December's surprise - preview

A few snippets from around the place. While the consensus is for a 'no change' policy result Deutsche Bank make the point:

• We expect the BoJ BOJ The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the central bank of Japan. It was established in 1882 and is headquartered in Tokyo.The BOJ's main responsibilities include issuing and managing the country's currency, implementing monetary policy, and ensuring the stability of the financial system. It also acts as a lender of last resort to banks during times of financial crisis. The BOJ sets the interest rate of the country and sets an inflation target, aiming to achieve 2% inflation.The BoO has a long history, with The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the central bank of Japan. It was established in 1882 and is headquartered in Tokyo.The BOJ's main responsibilities include issuing and managing the country's currency, implementing monetary policy, and ensuring the stability of the financial system. It also acts as a lender of last resort to banks during times of financial crisis. The BOJ sets the interest rate of the country and sets an inflation target, aiming to achieve 2% inflation.The BoO has a long history, with Read this Term to adhere to its present monetary policy, with YCC removal seen unlikely, although you can't rule it out given December's surprise.

BNZ on the yen impact:

• The consensus sees no change in policy, but there is the tail risk of Kuroda surprising the market before he hands over the reins. An extension of the allowable trading range for the 10-year rate or a shift to a shorter maturity target would likely put upward pressure on global rates and trigger a surge in the yen.

Société Générale

• We expect the BoJ to maintain its main monetary policy, i.e. YCC and ETF purchases.
• The BoJ is likely to want to see the results of this year's spring wage negotiations, or the shunto in Japan.
• Going forward, the BoJ is also likely to keep its policies unchanged in April, at the first meeting under the governor nominee, Kazuo Ueda.
• However, we expect that the BoJ will widen the range of fluctuation permitted on 10-year JGB yields from ±50 bps to ±100 bps at the June monetary policy meeting. In addition, the BoJ could make it clear that it will hold the current range or YCC until further progress is made in prices and wages. We continue to expect that the YCC will not be abolished in June.