- 25 of 49 (51%) economists expect the BOJ to keep rates unchanged through year-end
- The previous poll showed 46% of economists expecting rates to be unchanged
- 39 of 45 (87%) economists expect the BOJ to raise rates by 25 bps by end of March 2025
It is interesting to see the perception starting to shift. Of those polled, some are pointing to the BOJ not likely to hike before the next budget in late December. Meanwhile, some are saying that conditions might only line up better after the next BOJ quarterly outlook report in January. In terms of pricing in the OIS market, traders are attaching ~94% odds of there being no change by the BOJ for October. Looking to December, there is only ~8 bps priced in currently.
