Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions report from the monetary policy meeting on the 22nd and 23rd of January:
- One member said BOJ must patiently maintain monetary easing under ycc
- One member said positive wage-inflation spiral must strengthen further, wage growth must clearly exceed 2%, for japan to achieve BOJ’s 2% target
- One member said prerequisite for policy change, including ending negative rate, appears to be falling into place given improvements in economy, prices
- One member said we are now at the phase where we confirm through specific economic data likelihood of achieving 2% inflation target
- One member said there is strong chance we can judge that policy normalisation is possible, once we confirm impact of quake on economy in coming 1-2 months
- One member said we must deepen debate on exit as likelihood of achieving our price target has heightened
- One member said hard to pre-set interest rate path after ending negative rates
- One member said in what sequence BOJ could change policy would depend on economic, price conditions at the time but basically steps with big side-effects should first be modified
- One member said it is natural to end BOJ's ETF, REIT purchases if sustained, stable achievement of 2% price goal comes into sight
- One member said BOJ should end negative rate at appropriate timing to ensure path toward policy normalisation becomes a gradual one
- One member said BOJ could be forced to sharply tighten monetary policy if its decision to end negative rate comes too late
All of this "one member said" hardly gives us much idea of the general feeling around the big table.
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a "Summary of Opinions" after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.
Key points about the Summary:
- The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.
- The summary also outlines the Policy Board members' views on the effectiveness of the BOJ's current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.
- The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.
- The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.
In a few week's time we'll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.
- The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.
- The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ's current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.
- The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ's views on monetary policy.
- The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.
- The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes.
