- Only 24% of economists see a July rate hike (76% see no change to rates this month)
- 30% of economists see a rate hike in September instead, with 43% anticipating it in October
- 59% of economists see the BOJ tapering monthly bond purchases to around ¥5 trillion to start
- 52% of economists see those monthly purchases cut to about ¥3 trillion by July 2026
There's no real consensus on when the BOJ is going to hike rates next. But a move later this month is unlikely, given their recent communique and focus on tapering bond purchases instead. Still, they might just have a surprise up their sleeve. It wouldn't be the first time.
However, I would say a rate hike now would just look a bit desperate in trying to prop up the Japanese yen. Recent inflation data hasn't been supportive of that but then again, policymakers can always spin the narrative to however they see fit. As market players, we can only anticipate and go with the flow.
