Reuters poll of analysts ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week, Tuesday March 7 at 2.30pm Sydney time:
- statement due at 0030 GMT, which is 7.30pm US Eastern time
27 of 28 analysts polled expect the RBA to raise the cash rate next week b y 25bp to 3.6%
- 1 forecasts +15bp
- consensus view is for the cash rate 3.85% by the end of June and held there for the rest of the year
- A third of respondents are tipping 4.1% by the end of June. One has 4.35% forecast.
Reuters add:
- "The RBA does seem more concerned about inflation. The fact demand is a key driver and not just the supply side, we think they have got more work to do to ensure inflation comes back to target," said Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, who forecast a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming meeting.
----
According to the minutes from the meeting last month, the RBA only considered two alternatives for raising interest rates: by 50 basis points or by 25 basis points.
This was a notable shift from the December meeting when the Bank had contemplated remaining on hold. The CPI data in late January showed a huge jump, which shifted a complacent RBA into action.
---
Current cash rate vs. the still very high CPI:
