Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking ahead of his moderated discussion with CNBC Liesman.
- Fed 2% inflation target next as in anchor on expectations
- Short run inflation expectations aren't what matters
- Not surprised that one year expectations was higher
- At this time not much evidence that inflation is stalling out at 3%.
- We hit an inflation bulb this year and now we wait.
- We need to sniff the data down.
- We are relatively restrictive on policy.
- Real fed funds rate is as high as it is been in decades.
- I'm hesitant to focus too much on the recent inflation data.
- I think we are restrictive on policy
- Positive supply developments can make it hard to gauge if economy is overheating
As Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee speaks, a snapshot of markets shows: Dow up 0.19%, S&P index unchanged and NASDAQ index -0.20%. The 2-year yield is 4.863% and the 10 year yield is at 4.502% (1:22 PM ET)
- Increased immigration adds 80K monthly to jobs.
- Given the uptick in inflation we have to wait and see on policy.
- If the inflation uptick means overheating, the Fed has to do whatever it has to do to get to the 2% target.
- Housing inflation remains a significant puzzle and challenge
- If housing inflation comes down there will be an optimistic lane towards 2% inflation
- Does not accept that we were stuck at the last mile of inflation.
- Supply chain is mostly healed, but benefits of increase in the labor supply may last during 2024
- High rates are creating stickiness in housing and withdrawn some supply, but that is not behind housing inflation puzzle.
Apparently, this was just Goolsbee speaking and the main event with Kashkari is yet to begin.
My question is "Why?". PS Kashkaris spoke earlier as well. "Why?"
