- Jobs ever have been quite good for some time
- Labor market solid
- There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding Russia and Ukraine
- Report doesn't change anything that Fed chair Powell is positioning for
- With inflation pressures, we need to be moving towards more neutral monetary policy
- Need to be positioned for that
- This is not the 1970s story of how inflation got out of hand. THis is leaped up
- Need to be close enough to neutral by the end of the year so that we can deal adequately with inflation
- Commodity price rises reinforces unhelpful tendencies in prices
- By the end of the year will have a better fix on how far we need to go on rates
- I don't think we will see nearly as restrictive setting of monetary policy as we did in the 90s
- Doing 25 basis points of rate hikes at each meeting may be more than essential
- Expect Fed funds at end the year 1 3/4% to 2% which is close enough to neutral for the Fed.