China's "weekend’s data add to the probability of a surprise rate cut"

Weekend data from China included the latest CPI, but it's the credit data:

• Credit in China fell in April for the first time since 2017 (or 2005)

that has ING worried:

• The weekend’s data may increase the urgency to lower funding costs with an interest rate cut.
• The market’s baseline case for this Wednesday’s medium-term lending facility rate remains no rate cut, as previous hints pointed to RRR cuts prior to a rate cut, but the weekend’s data add to the probability of a surprise rate cut.