Daly has a habit of scheduling late-Friday speeches lately
- I don't see anything abnormal with what I'm seeing
- I'm seeing ongoing progress in inflation
- My expectations for the economy remain close to where they were in December
- The median of the SEP seems a very useful baseline to me
- The elements of what happened last year (falling inflation) are still there but we have to see how it plays out
- Policy is working, have to see how much longer it will take to get the job done
- Neutral rate estimate is now between 0.5 and 1, with a nominate rate between 2.5% and 3%
- We don't want a repeat of 2019 (on adequate reserves)
- I don't agree the last leg of inflation will be the hardest
- I've been surprised by Americans returning to the workforce and productivity growth
- Inflation expectations are well-anchored
- You can't look at levels in inflation expectations, you need to look at norms
There has been a consistent chorus from Fed officials -- and Daly is a Powell mouthpiece -- that nothing has changed since CPI and January data. Now markets were pricing in something more dovish than Fed officials ever said so there's some convergence here but the Fed isn't changing its tune.
