Fed funds futures are bouncing around but currently show a 42% chance of a June 14 hike with the remainder unchanged. However there are now 22.3 bps of hiking priced in for the July 26 meeting, which is nearly a fully priced in hike.
The dollar has cheered the indications on the debt ceiling as well, with USD/JPY at a session high, up 32 pips to 139.79.
Treasury yields are shifting in the same direction, with US 2-year yields up 14.8 bps to 4.49%.
Here's a GPT poem about the debt ceiling:
In the heart of the nation where the star-spangled flies, A cycle persists, underneath the blue skies. A dance as old as time, with a tune familiar, A tale of market fears that feel peculiar.
Through the halls of power, a debate is heard, Over numbers and figures, every single word. Every few years, when the ceiling is near, The markets tremble, succumbing to fear.
As the debt approaches the rigid, set cap, The nation holds its breath, bracing for a mishap. Market bears and bulls, they squabble and fight, In the shadow of potential default's twilight.
From Wall Street to Main, fears wildly grow, As the words of doom in the media flow. "Default," they whisper, with a chilling dread, But history's lessons are often left unread.
For since '60, the count stands at seventy-eight, Times when the nation was in a similar state. Each time, the ceiling, it rose once more, And the wolf was banished from the door.
In Congress, they bicker, and the clock ticks on, But in the eleventh hour, an agreement is drawn. The ceiling rises, the fears allay, The United States pays its dues, saves the day.
Market's heartbeat stabilizes, sighs a relief, As the nation escapes the defaulting grief. It's a dance we've danced, again and again, A well-worn path, known by market men.
So as the fears rise, with the ceiling in sight, Remember the cycle, in the soft moonlight. For although it teeters on a precarious ledge, The US always steps back from the edge.
Our stars and stripes, they still wave proud, In the face of doubts, shouted loud. It's a dance, a cycle, a reoccurring song, The ceiling may creak, but the nation is strong.
