Snippet from Deutsche Bank, in brief:
- base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflation
- higher FOMC terminal rate than previously expected
- opposite applies to Europe
On the US DB:
- assumes modest US tax cuts
- strong deregulation efforts
- more supportive financial conditions
- assume a 10% increase in the tariff rate on imports from China in H1 (ratcheting up a further 10pp in H2)
- equalisation of tariff rates on motor vehicles with Europe
- assume a 5% universal baseline tariff (more likely to be implemented late 2025/early 2026)
